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26 March 2025

Rachel Reeves cannot disguise the pain to come

The Chancellor’s rhetoric on growth has proved overblown.

By Andrew Marr

The rare glimmers of sunlight were brief flickers only. Spring Statement? Midwinter, more like. 

After halving its growth forecast for this year to just 1 per cent, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) did increase its projections for the years ahead. Rachel Reeves was pleased enough about that to leave it as a punchline. But each year, that still means growth below 2 per cent – upgrades of 0.1 percentage points or 0.2 points each year are so watery, so feeble that most people won’t notice. Real growth, of the kind we were promised at the election, seems almost as far away as ever. The Chancellor was right not to call this an emergency Budget. Had it been a Budget this week, she would have been raising taxes. Most economists think she will be forced to do so, probably this autumn.

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