“Congratulations on history’s greatest comeback!” So read the message from Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the US president-elect Donald Trump. But in many ways, it is Netanyahu’s own political resurrection of recent weeks that is more astonishing – and almost as historically significant.
In March 2023, facing widespread street protests and a possible jail sentence, Netanyahu made his first attempt to sack his defence secretary Yoav Gallant. A furious wave of protests from across Israeli society forced him into a swift reverse-ferret and seemed to threaten Netanyahu’s own political position. Then, in the aftermath of the 7 October attacks, it appeared as though his fate was finally sealed, to be remembered for all time as the man who presided over the worst day in the history of the Israeli state.
Yet, somehow, implausibly, today he seems stronger than ever. On 5 November, the day of the US election, Netanyahu finally did fire Gallant, the only member of his government with meaningful military experience, and the only person left in the cabinet with the prestige and pedigree to stand up to the PM following the resignation of Benny Gantz back in June. Gallant will be replaced by Israel Katz, a Netanyahu loyalist who will not give him any trouble.
Officially, the reason for the dismissal was insurmountable differences in how they see the prosecution of the war, which Netanyahu claimed are exploited by Hamas and Hezbollah. In particular, Gallant had been supportive of a ceasefire deal to end the war in Gaza and secure the return of the Israeli hostages, whereas Netanyahu has been resistant to such a deal, if not – as some critics allege – actively trying to undermine it.
An intelligence leak from Netanyahu’s office damaged one such deal back in May and, in the past few days, Israeli police have arrested a government spokesman and four others who are accused of leaking the documents. The spokesman, Eli Feldstein, who has been photographed alongside Netanyahu many times over the past year, has been arrested for manipulating and releasing classified military files which are believed to show that Hamas planned to use the ceasefire negotiations as cover to smuggle hostages out of Gaza (Netanyahu denies he had any knowledge of a leaked document).
Amid this chaos, Gallant’s dismissal is an attempt by Netanyahu to shore up his own position, and remove the last dissenter from the government. At the same time, the Knesset, the Israeli parliament, is debating a law that will allow for the continued exemption for ultra-Orthodox men from military service. This is highly unpopular among the general public, and Gallant had opposed the legislation. However, the ultra-Orthodox parties in Netanyahu’s coalition have threatened to pull their support from him if the law doesn’t pass, which could collapse the government. The dismissal of Gallant may increase the legislation’s chances of success.
The decision is not without risks. One of Netanyahu’s initial reasons for his refusal to resign after 7 October, and his main argument against a general election, is that it would be inappropriate to change government during a war. But as the politician Avigdor Lieberman – by no means a man of the left – noted in response to Gallant’s sacking: “If a defence minister can be replaced during war, then a failing prime minster, who has neglected the country’s security, can also be replaced.”
That Netanyahu decided to proceed with the sacking anyway shows a sense of newfound confidence. With Hamas’s Yahya Sinwar and Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah both dead, Israel Defense Forces casualties at an acceptably low level, and with the base of Netanyahu’s party Likud apparently willing to accept the loss of the hostages, the prime minister’s position looks strong. This is also reflected in the legislation put before the winter session of the Israeli parliament: in recent weeks, the Knesset has voted to allow prison sentences for minors under the age of 14 who have been convicted of terrorist offences; to allow for the deportation of the families of terrorists for up to 20 years; to make it easier to fire teachers accused of “sympathy with terrorism”; to give the justice minister more control over the legal profession; and to further weaken the independence of the judiciary.
The dismissal of Gallant is also a final two fingers to Joe Biden and his administration, which saw the former defence secretary as a voice of moderation inside the Israeli war cabinet, a “grown-up” with whom they could do business. With Biden on the way out, and Trump on his way to the White House, Netanyahu probably expects even greater freedom of action in the coming months and years. After all, it was Trump who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem – something all previous US presidents refused to do – and Trump who pulled out of the Iranian nuclear deal negotiated by the Obama administration, which Netanyahu claimed gave Iran a free hand to acquire nuclear weapons.
Areas in the US with high Muslim populations, such as Dearborn, Michigan, plumped for Trump over Kamala Harris in the election, partially in revolt against Democratic Party inertia on the Gaza war. But they may come to wish they’d gone with Harris, as opposed to someone like Trump, who has made no secret of his enmity towards Muslims and migrants from “shithole countries”, and who accepts Netanyahu’s framing of the war as one of civilisation vs savagery.
Nonetheless, he may have miscalculated if he thinks Israel will have an entirely free hand. Though Trump and Netanyahu appear to have repaired their relationship – the Israeli prime minister visited Trump at Mar-a-Lago in the summer, and Trump later said at one of his rallies that the Israeli PM was calling him for advice on an almost daily basis – there is a history of enmity between them.
When Netanyahu was quick to recognise Biden’s win in November 2020, he and Trump didn’t speak for almost four years. As recently as April, Trump made several derogatory remarks about Netanyahu in an interview with Time magazine, blaming him for 7 October, and attacking him for pulling out of a planned joint US-Israeli strike against the Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020.
The US has given aid worth almost $20bn to Israel this year. But Trump is infamously transactional and erratic: if he felt it was in his best interests, he would abandon Netanyahu without a second thought. With Iran reportedly readying a further attack on Israel, Netanyahu must be optimistic that Trump has fewer restraints than ever before, and that he will provide full support for any war with the Iranians. However, in America and the Middle East, there are no guarantees.
[See also: The realpolitik binding Israel’s hand]
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