Ukip have never won a seat in the House of Commons, other than via defection, but the bookmakers and much of the commentariat make them narrow favourites to pull it off in Stoke-on-Trent Central, a Labour seat since 1935.
Are they right to do so? Labour’s difficulties have been enhanced as the Conservatives have pulled out of the race in all but name, in part to concentrate resources on the Copeland by-election on the same day, and also because local Conservatives want to focus their efforts on the nearby metro Mayor race in the West Midlands.
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