The far-right is on the march; the left has rallied to defeat it. In a month which has seen the Trump-Vance presidential ticket power into life and National Rally fail to gain power in France, two simultaneous and contradictory readings of the contemporary political crisis have emerged. One sees an unstoppable wave, heralding the return of fascism across the West. Another, witnessing the joyous singing of antifascists on the streets of Paris and Perpignan after Le Pen’s defeat, proclaims the emptiness of the threat. Which is correct? Is the far right already the beast at the door or, despite media warnings of a populist rising for over a decade, the dog that fails to bark?
The French case is far from unique. For over a decade, Le Pen’s party has consistently increased its share of the vote. At the same time, the global momentum of hard-right campaigns has barely relented, propelling Viktor Orbán, Narendra Modi, Rodrigo Duterte, Donald Trump, Jair Bolsonaro and Javier Milei to power. The Israeli far-right has also assumed an increasingly dominant role in Benjamin Netanyahu-led governments. In Germany, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) beat Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats into second place in the European elections and polls second-place for the federal elections. And yet, Trump lost in 2020, Bolsonaro was out two years later, the Polish far-right has been kicked out of government. Narendra Modi failed to win a majority, and Le Pen’s coronation, the culmination of over a decade of “dédiabolisation”, was stolen from her at the last minute. It’s no wonder the movement has proven difficult to parse.
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