Vaughan Gething’s four months as Welsh first minister will be remembered for his party mismanagement, the ceaseless scandals and whiff of decadence. Every week his leadership fell further down a scandal-strewn hole, his reputation diminishing at the same rate as his authority. He failed to unite his party, assuage critics or offer a message beyond being the first black leader of a nation in Europe. He has now resigned.
When Jeremy Miles, his opponent in the winter contest to succeed Mark Drakeford as party leader, refused to say he had confidence in Gething three times yesterday, it was clear that the walls were closing in. Earlier today, Miles and three other Senedd Members (MSs) resigned and called for Gething to go. Their move proved politically fatal.
Gething’s woes began in the leadership contest when he took large donations from a twice-convicted criminal. He refused to hand back the money or apologise for accepting it, citing the fact that he hadn’t broken any rules. Toppling party leaders is all about momentum. The donations scandal was followed by the ill-thought-through decision to sack a minister without providing evidence that she had done anything wrong. Mistake after mistake ensured Gething’s position was continually in doubt. Support from his party was scant.
During the general election, Angela Rayner and Keir Starmer did campaign alongside Gething. His tricky political situation was glossed over in order to protect Starmer’s promise to restore probity and professionalism to public life. When the Senedd opposition brought forward a vote of confidence at the beginning of June, which Gething lost, the party line was that it was a show of parliamentary games. The then shadow cabinet member Emily Thornberry, in a sign of Westminster’s thoughtless disdain for Welsh politics, dismissed the vote as a “gimmick”. But the fact Gething made the same argument revealed his own disregard for the institutions of Welsh devolution. By dismissing MSs’ views, Gething undermined the Senedd’s constitutional claim to being a Welsh parliament because parliaments operate on the principle that the First Minister must command the confidence of Members.
This partly explains why it proved such a feeble barricade to the opposition’s calls for him to go. Whether he recognised the vote of confidence as legitimate or not, he did not have the numbers to pass a budget. He could not even muster his party’s MSs to support him in the confidence vote. Meanwhile, at a national level, where Starmer wants to project change and seriousness, support was wearing thin. When I spoke to senior Labour members on Monday, no one made the case for him to stay. They could sense the inevitable.
The question now is whether Gething’s time in office marks the beginning of the end of Labour’s hegemony in Wales. Plaid Cymru is waiting patiently in the wings, probably conscious of the way the SNP usurped Labour as Scotland’s natural party of government in 2007. Equally, Reform is focusing on the 2026 Senedd elections because its proportional system could allow the party to capitalise on a general election vote share in Wales that was higher than in England. Labour Wales is fertile territory for Reform. Labour’s policies there, such as introducing 20mph speed limits and stricter environmental rules for farmers, have triggered anti-establishment protests on which Reform hopes to build.
But for now, Welsh Labour must select a new leader. Miles, who played a key role in bringing Gething down, will probably hope to succeed where he previously failed. Others may come to the fore. But an unnerving thought will permeate the contest: that Gething’s ignominious time in office was a symptom, not the cause, of the party’s problems.
[See also: Can Labour end our national addiction to prison?]
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