As well as the publication of the Leveson report, tomorrow sees three parliamentary by-elections – in Middlesborough, Croydon North and Rotherham (all currently Labour-held). Of these, it is the latter that Labour is concentrating resources on. A combination of factors – the date (which will reduce turnout), the child grooming scandals, Denis MacShane’s resignation over false invoices, a divided local party and, most recently, the UKIP fostering row – means that the result is increasingly hard to predict.
It was initially Respect, which is fielding Yvonne Ridley, a former journalist who famously converted to Islam after her capture by the Taliban, that was seen as the main threat, but it is now UKIP, support for which has surged since the weekend, that represents the greatest challenge to Labour. The latest YouGov poll puts Nigel Farage’s party on 11 per cent (up from eight per cent), the party’s highest-ever rating, and it is likely to have enjoyed a far larger swing in Rotherham.
Content from our partners
