Conservative leadership contests traditionally favour the most europhobic candidate (mere scepticism was long abandoned). In 1997 and 2001, William Hague and Iain Duncan Smith triumphed over a superior politician (Ken Clarke) on these grounds. In 2005, David Cameron won on a modernising platform but outflanked his rivals by vowing to withdraw the Tories from the federalist European People’s Party. By appeasing, rather than confronting europhobia, Cameron set in train the events that led to the Brexit vote.
In the next Tory leadership contest, the signs are that Brussels-bashing will once again pay. ConservativeHome’s latest party members’ survey gives the three Brexiteers positive approval ratings. David Davis (the favourite to succeed Theresa May) is on +72.5, Liam Fox +48.9 and Boris Johnson +39.9. Conversely, after championing a three-year Brexit transition period, Philip Hammond’s approval rating has fallen to a record low of -25.4 (from -11.5). Only Conservative chairman Patrick McLoughlin, still bearing the blame for the Tories’ election failure, fares worse.
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