On 2 October 2016, as Theresa May addressed the Conservative conference for the first time, she announced what became known as “hard Brexit”. The UK, she signalled, would leave the EU’s single market in order to gain control of immigration. And it would leave the customs union in order to seek trade agreements with non-European countries. The “reluctant Remainer” appeared to many to have become an enthusiastic Leaver. Tory MPs and delegates hailed May as the new Queen of Brexitannia.
But even then, as I noted at the time, the Prime Minister had left room for compromise. Though she had ruled out accepting free movement or European jurisdiction, she had not ruled out continued EU budget contributions. As the union’s second largest net contributor (donating £10.8bn in 2015/16), this was too valuable a card to relinquish. Nor did May rule out a transitional period during which the UK would remain a member of the single market before reaching a new trade agreement with the EU.
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