Now that the die has been cast by Theresa May for this unexpected election, all bets are on for how big a majority the Conservatives will win by. But with Brexit firmly on the agenda there is a lot at stake in these elections. The Lord Ashcroft polls in 2016 told us a lot about how different segments of the population voted for Brexit, but less about how ethnic minorities voted. But their vote was important back then as it will be now. This is because the black and ethnic minority population in the UK have not only grown substantially in size since the 1991 Census (their numbers have doubled), but they are spreading out across more areas. Their votes will count in more constituencies than ever before. But the problem is they do not have the same voting patterns as white British voters, and they do not vote as a homogenous group.
In the 1997 elections, Labour averaged around 80 percent share of the black and minority ethnic vote, but this has dwindled with every passing election and is now just 68 percent. That is still nearly three times the share of BME votes for the Conservatives, but the climb from 16 per cent of the BME vote for the Conservatives in 2010 to around 25 per cent in 2015 suggests that the Tories are steadily catching up, as they seek to finally bury the image of Enoch Powell.
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