Donald Trump is losing and he knows it. The Republican presidential candidate now has just a 15 per cent chance of winning in November, according to the statistician Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight prediction model. Silver, who called every single state correctly in the 2012 election, has joined a chorus of commentators describing this as Trump’s “lowest moment” in his 15-month campaign.
Gaffes – ranging from his feud with the parents of a Muslim-American marine killed in Iraq to his appeal to Russia to “hack” Hillary Clinton’s private emails – have given Trump a two-thirds unfavourable poll rating. At last, after a year of outrageous and offensive remarks, he seems to be feeling the consequences.
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