For political scientists and electoral strategists, it all seemed to be finally coming into focus. Like some Magic Eye poster from the 90s, if you concentrated and squinted just hard enough at the electoral field, Marco Rubio’s smiling face seemed to look back at you. In a circus of a nominating contest, basic laws of common sense were starting to operate once more. Ben Carson and Donald Trump might make for a refreshing political amuse bouche but the solid fare of establishment favourites was being dished up and the service bell had dinged. Hillary would run on experience and the better yesterday of the 1990s; Rubio would talk about “21st Century Leadership” and talk in Spanish while beaming constantly. The election would be “historic” but the kind of history that felt like every other election cycle. Ohio, Colorado and Florida. Democrats would run up margins with a focus on social issues; Republicans would try to close them by showing a fresh face and a Spanish fluency. Rinse, wash, repeat. Old slippers. Manchester United winning the league. An Old Etonian Prime Minister and a socialist in charge of the Labour Party. A world to be relied upon. Somehow, somewhere, something didn’t go to plan.
It wasn’t Iowa’s fault. We were used to curiosity candidates (remember Herman Cain? No?). Iowa tended to favour the niche candidates who tickled the erogenous zones of the Republican coalition. Rick “sweater vest” Santorum’s and Mick Huckabee’s folksy appeals to evangelicals won Iowa battles but, by doing so, guaranteed that they would lose the nominating war. Iowa’s role was to offer up the sacrificial lamb to distract the working class conservative voters before they fell in line behind the establishment pick. Place in Iowa to show broad acceptability and move on. Iowa’s caucus was closed to Independents, which favoured Trump’s hardline message and Cruz’s organisation on the ground. Only Republican-registered rock-ribbed conservatives, overwhelmingly religious, would be allowed to vote. Cruz’s pastor father and prominent endorsements from Iowa evangelical leaders would allow him to leap over Trump’s polling lead to victory. Trump’s supporters looked like traditional non-voters, the Donald’s Get Out the Vote operation seemed to be in chaos, and Cruz had invested heavily in getting as many of Iowa’s evangelical voters to election booths as possible. For those who only watched the polling, Cruz’s victory would prove to be a minor surprise.
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