Many years from now, students of politics might be forgiven for seeing the result of the Oldham West and Royton by-election and finding it totally unremarkable. The opposition party increased (in percentage terms) its majority in a safe seat, the governing party dropped back further and the others were little changed. Indeed John Curtice, speaking on the BBC, described the result as “about par”. On paper, it doesn’t look like a surprising outcome.
But a surprise it was, and not for the first time in 2015. In May, few anticipated the outcome of the general election because polling was questioned less than it might have been. The scale of Jeremy Corbyn’s victory in the Labour leadership election surprised many because YouGov’s polling attracted considerable skepticism, only to be vindicated by the result.
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