Corbyn’s foreign and domestic policies will probably take a while to assemble, and his leadership is still just days old. But we already have some polling, and actual electoral, data that we can use to test and explore our assumptions about Corbyn’s likely popularity. So how is he doing so far?
The first thing to say is that there has not been much of an overall “Corbyn bounce”. That may not be surprising, given his absolutely torrid first week in charge, during which his project looked on several occasions like blowing up before it had even begun. But it is of note. There’s a teeny, tiny bit of a lift discernable in the four national polls and one marginal survey we’ve seen. But it’s well within the margin of error, and therefore it might not be there at all. ComRes showed a 0.5 per cent swing to the Conservatives from their last poll; YouGov, a 1.5 per cent move to Labour; ICM, the same; and Opinium, a 0.5 per cent swing to Labour since the General Election. An ICM marginals poll, taken in Conservative seats with slender majorities, showed a 2 per cent swing to Labour.
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