Both Brexit and Donald Trump’s victory are described as huge surprises. Of course that is partly about the polls, but in truth the polls were not that wrong. It is more a feeling that is summed up by the phrase “self-harm” being used to describe Brexit – and, with Trump, disbelief that someone who broke all the rules could win. Yet in reality both events were entirely predictable, if you thought about the information which voters had.
Take Brexit first. It was always going to be about a desire to control immigration, set against the economic harm caused by Brexit. This compares something which is certainty to something that can only be estimated. It is certain that within the EU we cannot directly control internal migration. How much economic harm Brexit will do is uncertain. What information did most voters have on this? They had a great deal of information available if they knew where to look and who to trust, but most voters do not know those things and have other things to do. What information was presented to them through the media they normally viewed?
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