Labour have revised down their total electorate from 600,000 to 553,954 after their first round of processing. What’s going on? And crucially, what does it mean for the chances of Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour leadership frontrunner?
To take the last question first: not a whole lot, if the polls are right. Matt Singh, one of the few to predict the outcome of the last election, has reweighted the YouGov poll to take account of the changes – and Corbyn still wins on the first round, with around 55-56 per cent of the vote (down from 57 per cent). Corbyn’s lead is sufficiently large – and crucially, uniform across all groups within the electorate – that the result is unlikely to change if the polls are right.
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