As the polls have remained deadlocked, some Tories have consoled themselves with the thought that they could simply be wrong. In 1992 the final surveys showed Labour and the Conservatives level pegging but John Major’s party finished seven points ahead and won a majority of 21 seats. The error was due to the phenomenon of “shy Tories”: those who refused to disclose their true voting intention to pollsters out of shame of voting Conservative.
Polling companies have since adjusted their methodologies to account for this factor, but the man who lost the 1992 election, Neil Kinnock, believes it remains a danger for Labour. In an interview in this week’s New Statesman, the party’s former leader tells me:
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