7 April 2015updated 05 Oct 2023 8:40am

No really, the SNP are going to win at least 50 of Scotland’s 59 seats

The swing in Labour’s heartlands is even greater than the swing implied by national polls.

(Photo By The SNP has surged since the referendum under Sturgeon's leadership. Photo: Getty.)

Four things have changed in the polls – and in election predictions – since this site launched in early September.

Labour lost their 3-4 point poll lead and are now resolutely tied with the Tories; Ukip have gradually dipped since November, but are still set to win 4 million votes; and the Greens nearly caught the Lib Dems in the polls before fading.

Content from our partners

Wayne Robertson: “The science is clear on the need for carbon capture”

Spotlight

An old Rioja, a simple Claret,and a Burgundy far too nice to put in risotto

New Statesman Wine Club

Antimicrobial Resistance: Why urgent action is needed

Spotlight

Harry Lambert

@harrytlambert

Harry Lambert is a former staff writer and editor at the New Statesman. He also edited the Saturday Read newsletter. He has written cover features on universities, No 10, the BBC, Labour, AI and tax.