One of the transparent calculations behind Boris Johnson’s decision to return to parliament is the possibility (or even probability) that the Tories will be defeated in 2015. With nine months remaining until the general election, a new Survation poll of 13 Conservative marginals (10 Labour targets, three Lib Dem) confirms the party’s unpromising position. It puts Labour on 41 per cent (up 10 points since 2010), the Tories on 31 per cent (down eight), Ukip on 17 per cent (up 14) and the Lib Dems on just 4 per cent (down 17), a swing of nine per cent to Labour since the last election.
On a uniform swing, these figures would see Labour win all 10 of its target seats (Amber Valley, Warwickshire North, Broxtowe, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Brighton Kemptown, Lincoln, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Sherwood, Thurrock, Cannock Case) and more than 100 Tory-held marginals nationwide. By contrast, the Lib Dems would fail to win any of their target seats (Camborne and Redruth, Truro and Falmouth, West Dorset) after a swing of four points towards the Tories.
Content from our partners
