One of the main reasons why the Tories remain confident that they will be the largest party after 2015 is that David Cameron continues to lead Ed Miliband as “the best prime minister” (by 35-24 when YouGov last asked the question). By framing the election as a presidential contest, they believe they can erode Labour’s poll lead.
But as I argue in my NS politics column this week, such optimism is misplaced. History shows that a well-liked (or, more accurately, less disliked) leader is no guarantee of electoral success. In the final poll before the 1979 election, Jim Callaghan enjoyed a 19-point lead over Margaret Thatcher as “the best prime minister” but the Tories still won a majority of 44 seats. Similarly, in the 1970 election, Harold Wilson’s 23-point lead over Ted Heath failed to prevent Labour suffering a decisive defeat.
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