The economic recovery has barely begun but David Cameron and George Osborne already appear to be reaping the political benefits. The latest Guardian/ICM poll shows that support for their management of the economy has risen to 40 per cent from 28 per cent last month giving them a 16 point lead over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
With growth likely to be purring along at around 2 per cent by 2015 is it game over for Labour? Not necessarily. It’s true that economic approval ratings are frequently a reliable long-term indicator of the election result but it’s worth noting the exceptions to this rule. Ahead of the 1997 election, as Balls likes to remind his colleagues, Labour trailed the Conservatives by seven points on “managing the economy” and by 22 points among those who said the issue was important, according to MORI’s regular tracker. It was only after the party’s victory that it established a consistent lead over the Tories. While voters believed the Conservatives would run UK PLC better, they still preferred Labour after years of sleaze and run-down public services.
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