The gold market appears to have well and truly peaked. The Perth mint puts the all-time high way back on 6 September 2011, when the bid price per ounce was $1915.55. It’s now plummeted to just over $1600, and appears to be on a steady downward trajectory.
None of which will be much consolation to Gordon Brown, who famously sold most of Britain’s gold reserves near the bottom of the market, between 1999 and 2002. He may have made $3.5bn from the sale, at an average price of $270; but if he’d sold on to the same reserves and sold them the day before the 2010 election, he’d have made the country just over $15bn. And he is never allowed to forget it; cries of “Brown sold the gold” are common even today.
But it’s unfair to hold Brown to standards only visible in hindsight. After all, he’s not magic. So what critics are really saying is “Brown should have known beforehand that gold was a good investment”. And if we’re holding Brown to that criticism, we have to hold his Osborne to the same standard.
When the chancellor took power, gold was selling for $1170; 18 months later, it had hit its peak. If Osborne had bought back the quantity of gold Brown sold, he’d have had to spend $15bn; but then, 18 months later, he’d have made a profit of $9.7bn, selling the gold for $24bn. Even if he’d just bought back the value of what Brown sold, spending $3.5bn on gold in 2010, he could have sold it for $5.7bn, a $2.2bn profit.
Brown didn’t lose money in 2003; he just failed to make money in the years after. Osborne didn’t lose money in 2010; he just failed to make money in the 18 months after. Unless we want to punish all our chancellors for not moonlighting as day traders, holding them liable for the money they didn’t make is nonsensical.
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