The preliminary estimate for GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 has come in at 0.3 per cent. That’s higher than the vast majority of economists had predicted, coming in as it does against a consensus estimate of 0.1 per cent.
Clearly, the difference between growth of -0.1 and 0.1 per cent is where the real disconnect is in the political debate. If it were the first, then we would have been in a triple-dip recession. As it is, we aren’t, and the chancellor will be able to begin a narrative of our slow return to growth. In fact, coming in at 0.3 per cent may even lead to a temptation to drop the “slow” part of that narrative. We’re growing three times faster than the forecasts predicted! Break out the champagne!
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