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5 October 2011

Sir Mervyn can’t be pleased. The MPC is in a hole.

As in the US, growth forecasts were wrong all along.

By David Blanchflower

There were a lot of very embarrassed members of the economics staff at the Bank of England, this morning. They messed up and it is certain that Sir Mervyn was not pleased, as now the MPC is in a hole. More of that in a minute. First, we need some background.

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  OLD NEW
2007 Q1 1.0 1.1
2007 Q2 0.6 1.2
2007 Q3 0.5 1.2
2007 Q4 0.3 0.6
2008 Q1 0.5 0.0
2008 Q2 -0.3 -1.3
2008 Q3 -0.9 -2.0
2008 Q4 -2.1 -2.3
2009 Q1 -2.2 -1.6
2009 Q2 -0.8 -0.2
2009 Q3 -0.3 0.2
2009 Q4 0.5 0.7
2010 Q1 0.4 0.2
2010 Q2 1.1 1.1
2010 Q3 0.6 0.6
2010 Q4 -0.5 -0.5
2011 Q1 0.5 0.4
2011 Q2 0.2 0.1
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